In stage 2, the first plausible cause that comes to mind should be treated as:

Answer

A trap — generate and score rivals

Options - A. Usually right — intuition is evidence - B. The conservative choice, so accepted - C. The simplest option, so preferred - D. A trap — generate and score rivals Why - A. Intuition is a hypothesis, not evidence. The client's favourite cause is often the first one to mind and often wrong. - B. Conservativeness is one virtue among seven and applies to fit with known facts, not to whichever cause arrived first. - C. Simplicity is judged among rivals. A lone cause has not been compared to anything. - D. Correct — list at least three rival causes, test each against every fact, and choose by the explanatory virtues.

Van Cleave 3.2; concept map E06