Choosing the analysis, and stating assumptions

Decide the analysis before doing it

The last line of the stage-1 rubric is the kind of analysis chosen, and why. There are three kinds a case in this course can need: qualitative (judgements — about reliability, staff morale, flexibility, reputation), simple quantitative (a comparison of costs, margins or savings, done in a small table), or both. The choice is made before the analysis starts, from what the decision needs — not from what the data happens to allow, not from which kind has the most numbers, and not by defaulting to qualitative because "this is not a numbers course". A stage 1 that names the analysis tells the reader what stage 3's matrix will contain, and it stops the analyst from doing whatever is easiest and calling it the analysis.

Worked example — Lakeshore needs both

What does the press decision turn on? Partly on money: four alternatives with different annual costs — repairs that are rising; a purchase with a loan payment; a lease; outsourcing with a margin loss. That is a simple quantitative comparison: one annual-cost line per alternative, nothing more elaborate. And partly on things no cost line captures: whether each alternative restores on-time delivery, what happens to two operators, how locked in the business becomes. Those are qualitative judgements. So the analysis chosen is both — a simple annual-cost comparison, plus reliability, staff and flexibility judgements — because the decision turns on cost and on things cost does not measure. That last clause is the "why" the rubric asks for.

Assumptions, written down

Every analysis rests on things assumed rather than known. The stage-1 discipline is to write them down — in stage 1, and again in the memo — so that a reader who disagrees with one can see how the answer changes. An assumption left unstated because it seemed obvious is the one the marker will contest, and a contested assumption that is not on the page looks like a mistake rather than a judgement.

Lakeshore's, as the analysis will rest on them:

1. Volumes stay flat — the annual-cost comparison assumes next year's work is this year's; if large-format volume falls, the lease and the purchase look worse and outsourcing looks better.
2. The purchase loan is at 7 % over five years, as the bank indicated — the ≈ $63,400 annual payment depends on it.
3. The lease includes maintenance, as quoted — so no repair line is added to alternative C.
4. The two threatening accounts leave if on-time delivery stays at 84 % — which is what makes the status quo cost more than its repair bill.
5. This year's $38,000 of repairs is the new normal, not a spike — the status quo's cost line rests on it.

Five lines. Each is a place where a reader could say "I don't think so", and each names what would change if they were right. That is what an assumption is for.

Choose for the clinic; list its assumptions

Grand River Family Dental: does the decision turn on numbers? Partly — a software subscription against the revenue lost to 12 % no-shows is a simple quantitative comparison. And partly not — ease of use for the receptionists, disruption during the switch, patients' willingness to book online. Both, again. Assumptions: that online booking with reminders reduces no-shows (by how much is itself an assumption — state a range); that the paper book has no cost beyond the phone line; that the receptionists can be trained in a week; that patients will use it. Write them before looking at a single product.